UK Retail Sales Slow as Shoppers Wait for Black Friday and the Budget
Retail sales in the UK grew at their slowest pace since May as shoppers held back on spending, waiting for Black Friday discounts and possible tax changes in the upcoming budget.
According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG, sales in October rose by only 1.6%, down from 2.3% in September.
Food sales saw the biggest slowdown, growing 3.5%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. This happened as inflation eased and people started saving for Christmas.
Non-food sales were almost flat, rising just 0.1% compared with last year. Sales of shoes, stationery, and appliances fell due to the warm weather and people waiting for Black Friday deals on 28 November.
A report from Barclays showed that about a third of shoppers delayed large purchases until after the budget, and two in five made changes to their finances.
Barclays said this was the first time since August 2022 that all seven of its consumer confidence measures had dropped. Confidence in household finances fell sharply, from 74% to 63%. Confidence in job security and non-essential spending also hit their lowest points since 2023, at 44% and 51%.
Spending on Barclays cards dropped 0.8% in October, similar to 0.7% in September. The biggest declines were seen in supermarkets, department stores, and discount shops, while spending on electronics, fuel, and motoring also fell.
Retailers such as Argos and Sainsbury’s CEO Simon Roberts have expressed concern that the budget announcement by Rachel Reeves—coming just days before Black Friday—could affect spending on what is one of the biggest shopping days of the year.
Helen Dickinson, CEO of the BRC, said:
“Retailers are counting on Black Friday to boost sales, but the budget could hurt already weak consumer confidence. October was a quiet month, with many people delaying spending until Black Friday or cooler weather. Furniture and homeware performed better as families prepared for Christmas.”
She added that food sales growth came mostly from higher prices, not from people buying more.
Sarah Bradbury, CEO of the grocery trade body IGD, said shoppers were becoming more cautious:
“People are focusing on saving money rather than buying higher-quality products. The talk of possible tax rises is worrying shoppers, even though food price inflation has slowed. With the job market slowing and wages barely keeping up with prices, people don’t feel much better off. We expect them to stay careful with spending in the short term so they can afford Christmas treats.”
Published: 11th November 2025
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